A new security analysis has warned that armed groups operating across Nigeria are adopting more coordinated strategies, with the National Youth Service Corps orientation camp in Yikpata, Kwara State, identified as a potential soft target in the North Central region.
SBM Intelligence, in its latest weekly security report, documented a shift from opportunistic kidnappings to territorially assertive operations, noting that criminal networks are testing the limits of overstretched security formations across parts of Kwara and neighbouring states.
The report positioned corps members and staff at Yikpata within what it described as a "high risk corridor" due to the camp's proximity to emerging flashpoints.
"Due to its proximity to the violence, corps members and staff at Yikpata are now in a high risk area. Any spillover would place them in immediate danger, as the camp is a soft target. Given the current trajectory, the Yikpata NYSC orientation camp is no longer just at risk. It is likely being mapped as a strategic hostage asset," the report stated.
According to SBM, armed groups in the region increasingly deploy what analysts term "saturation tactics", mobilising in numbers to overwhelm small security posts and exploiting gaps in reinforcement capacity.
The report highlighted cases where officers are deliberately targeted to seize service rifles, further weakening local resistance capability.
SBM also documented a "revolving door kidnapping economy" in parts of Kwara South, where fresh abductions occur shortly after victims are freed, straining security deployments and creating opportunities for secondary attacks or diversionary operations designed to confuse response teams.
Beyond the North Central region, the report pointed to similar tactical shifts nationwide. In the North West, Kaduna continues recording frequent abductions of Catholic clergy, whilst in the North East, fighters linked to the Islamic State West Africa Province are reportedly experimenting with economic disruption tactics, including destroying transport vehicles along key supply routes without looting cargo, interpreted as attempts to assert territorial control.
In the South East, SBM linked recent violence in Ogidi to suspected cult reprisals involving the Neo Black Movement, warning that delayed law enforcement action could trigger retaliatory attacks. The report also referenced isolated incidents attributed to elements of the Indigenous People of Biafra, despite an overall decline in sit at home enforcement activities.
SBM concluded that the emerging pattern reflects a broader transition from isolated ransom driven crimes to operations aimed at controlling territory, intimidating communities, and exploiting manpower shortages within security agencies. It urged proactive deployments, improved intelligence coordination, and strengthened protection for vulnerable public institutions to prevent further escalation.
